So much of Senate’s decisions appear to be surrounding the House GOP’s proposed healthcare bill rested on a score from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The scoring was guaranteed by May 24, and on schedule it arrived. In the CBO report, new light was shed on the House GOP’s second attempt at their American Healthcare Act (AHCA) bill, as the previous one didn’t make it past the House floor. It has now been approved by the House and is in the Senate’s hands, where deliberation will either move it forward or dismantle it per the rumors that are already circulating.
The biggest number to keep in mind is 23 million. That is how many Americans will be left uninsured by 2026 should the House GOP’s proposed bill be put into action. While that’s a million less than the first round of Trump’s AHCA (CBO initially estimated 24 million under the AHCA), that number is still staggering and problematic. Add to that the existing estimates of the uninsured, and by 2026 that leaves 51 million people without healthcare under the AHCA; 28 million if the ACA remained in place instead.
Another figure to keep in mind is $119 billion; that is the estimated decrease in the federal budget’s deficit should this new version of the AHCA be passed. While that number is significant, the earlier attempt at the AHCA estimated a $151 billion decrease in the deficit. Meaning, the new changes to the bill would actually cost the government more money than anticipated.
Other points in the nonpartisan report include premium changes depending on age, location, and demographic. Under the new AHCA, those in their ‘50s and ‘60s can be charged higher premiums, and in states where waivers haven’t been requested, premiums could be lowered by 4%, considering those markets would presumably have younger and healthier participants. The metal-rating system of the ACA would be eliminated, and with it the extensive options for plans under various insurers. That means a loss of comprehensive benefits would be imminent. And despite an estimated decrease in premiums for the young and healthy, key benefits like prescriptions, maternity costs, mental health, and substance abuse aid would actually cost more—by thousands.
Perhaps the greatest takeaway from the CBO scoring is that the AHCA would save less money and continue to leave a significant number of Americans without insurance. While the second draft of the bill passed the House, had this scoring been released prior to the vote, would it have been without sufficient support for the second time. Perhaps this is exactly what Senate GOP wanted, in order to move forward with their own plans to create an alternative to the AHCA. In that case, it could be a win for both Democrats and Republicans concerned about the fate of healthcare in this nation.
