With Trump threatening to introduce tariffs on Mexico and public protests mounting over the use detention facilities for Central American asylum-seekers, Guatemala has been pulled into public discourse over the last few weeks. Trump is calling the migration issue a crisis but doesn't seem to be paying close attention to the internal dynamics in Guatemala, one of the main migrant-sending countries. Guatemala's business and political elites, fearful about facing corruption investigations at home, have bent the knee to Trump in an effort to form an alliance with the unpredictable U.S. president and have promised to help stem the flow of migrants fleeing Guatemala and its neighbors. Trump, for obvious reasons, isn't likely to start criticizing Guatemala's business elites for their track record of corruption and poor governance. Trump just wants to be able to claim he's working to stop the migration "crisis."
Over the last few weeks I've tweeted a number of articles that highlight the evolving situation in Guatemala and explain the country's current political dynamic.
On June 5 I tweeted this Americas Society podcast looking at the candidates running in Guatemala's 2019 presidential election.
On June 12 I tweeted this Washington Post article by Kevin Sieff which examines how climate change and economic problems are pushing Guatemala's coffee farmers to leave their villages and migrate to the U.S.
On June 13 I tweeted this Guardian article by Nina Lakhani. In the article, Martín Rodríguez, editor of the news website Nomada, explains that Trump has chosen to prioritize his short-term priorities over the long term fight against corruption in Guatemala. “Trump betrayed 10 years of unprecedented progress, and sided with the old alliance of politicians, military officers, judges, businessmen and organised crime who don’t care about democracy, poverty or justice, only about maintaining their privileges. It’s a selfish, colonial decision which will result in more Guatemalans at the US border,” he explained.
On June 14 I tweeted my Forbes Q&A with Jo-Marie Burt, a Senior Fellow at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), a D.C.-based think-tank. Burt told me, "Guatemala ranks 143rd of 180 places on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. Yet the current government, led by Jimmy Morales, has done everything in its power to undermine the fight against corruption, including dismantling institutions, including the international anti-corruption body CICIG and the Attorney General’s Office, that have achieved important successes in combating both the scourge of systemic corruption and organized crime." Most ordinary Guatemalans view the political process with immense skepticism and prefer to vote with their feet, migrating north rather than fighting for change at home. Burt told me, "the issues that matter to most Guatemalans — education, jobs, poverty, rising inequality, the devastating effects of climate change on the country’s agricultural output — are not part of the conversation, aside from vague campaign promises that are quickly forgotten once elections are over."
On June 27 I tweeted this Economist article that looks at Guatemala's presidential race and explains that faced with a run-off between front-runners Sandra Torres and Alejandro Giammattei, two political insiders seen as representing the status quo, "Guatemalans who yearn for the rule of law are despairing."
If Trump really wanted to address the issue of Central American migration, he'd have to get involved working to address the political problems in countries like Guatemala. Trump, however, seems to just want to use the issue as a wedge during his re-election campaign and prefers grandstanding and talking tough at rallies to engaging in meaningful efforts to improve the political and economic dynamic in Guatemala and other countries.
