How Macron’s G7 Quest To Strengthen West Could Backfire

The world’s elite will meet at the G7 in France’s seaside city of Biarritz Saturday, but the atmosphere could be far from blissful.

French President Emmanuel Macron will host world leaders including U.S. President Donald Trump with issues such as the Iran nuclear deal, the global economy, and the environment set to top discussions.

The success of the summit is likely to depend on Trump’s mood.

But that already appears somewhat dampened after the U.S./China trade war took another turn Friday, as both countries imposed new tariffs, heightening fears about the world economy.

The southwestern city will be on lockdown this weekend, with more than 13,000 police officers securing the area and bathers told to swim elsewhere. But for the G7 elite, which includes the leaders of Canada, Germany, France, the U.S., Japan, Italy, and the U.K., they will be hosted with all the pomp and splendor at the luxurious Hotel du Palais, which sits on the beachfront of the surfing resort.

However, just 30 kilometers away, in the towns of Irun and Hendaye, activists and campaign groups will be holding demonstrations on issues such as social justice and climate change.

Macron: The strongman of Europe

Pushing his image as the strongman of Europe will be key for Macron as the liberal international order, spearheaded by the U.S. and Europe faces new challenges by Russia, China, and the Trump administration.

“For Macron, this is both about France and Europe. He wants to confirm France’s role in the multilateral arena, as a convening power, a ‘balancing power’ that can speak to everyone,” said Tara Varma of the European Council on Foreign Relations think-tank.

“Also for Macron, the challenge to Western hegemony forces Europe to be a vector of change in the coming world order, or else it will be compelled to choose its camp, solely in the role of the ‘vassal.’”

Macron: The eco-warrior

Even before the summit kicks off, Macron has already enflamed tensions with Brazil by saying said he would not ratify an EU and South American trade deal unless Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro does more to contain the devastating fires in the Amazon.

After Macron accused the Brazilian President of lying to him over his stance on climate change, Bolsonaro accused his French counterpart of having a “colonialist mentality.”

“Members of the G7 Summit, let’s discuss this emergency first order,” Macron said in a Tweet Thursday.

He also said Friday he would apply pressure on Trump to sign a pact to protect biodiversity.

While some of Macron’s counterparts are likely to agree with his stance on the environment, it is unlikely Trump, who has a record of climate change denial, will agree to any pact.

Macron: The middleman

Since the U.S. pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal last year, Macron, among other European leaders, has scrambled to salvage it. On Friday, Macron held talks with Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who told reporters suggestions by the French president to save the pact were going in the right direction, but more work needed to be done.

However, Trump has continuously pushed for a hard line against Iran and is unlikely to be convinced by his counterparts to change his stance. Another clash at the summit could involve Russia and its annexation of Crimea.

Trump has signaled he wants to forgive Russia and bringing it back into the G7 group, but Macron has said any rapprochement would only happen if the Crimea issue were resolved.

The Brexit show

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will make his debut on the world stage at the summit. But with Brexit talks with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Macron appearing to go no-where this week, Johnson, who is seeking a trade deal with the U.S. after the U.K. leaves the bloc, could be leaning on Trump’s support.

But the U.K. prime minister will not be able to stray from the common EU consensus on topics such as Iran and will have to find a delicate balance between sticking to the bloc’s line while keeping Trump sweet.

Averting a total failure

Macron has tried to do everything to stop the summit in the southwest of France from becoming a fiasco by insisting the meeting will be informal, after learning from past G7 summits.

The 2018 G7 in Canada was marred by Trump withdrawing support for a final communiqué, which he had initially signed, as well as calling host Justin Trudeau “dishonest and weak.” Drawing from that lesson, Macron has withdrawn any final consensus communiqué, taking away one of the chances for leaders to brand the summit a failure.