KOSTROMA, RUSSIA - SEPTEMBER 12, 2020: A ballot box is placed at a polling station during early ... [+]
It may not seem like there's much at stake—regional voting rarely produces political earthquakes—but this time it may be enough to worry the Kremlin.
Protests in Russia's Far East, and the poisoning of Russia's most prominent opposition politician, Alexei Navalny, mean that the elections (the main voting takes place September 13) will be carefully watched for what it says about the popularity of those in power in Moscow.
Little has been left to chance during President Vladimir Putin's lengthy time at the top of Russian politics.
After the collapse of communism in the early 1990s, Russia's political scene was chaotic. In 1993, a dispute between Russia's first post-Soviet president, Boris Yeltsin, and the parliament that was largely a hangover from the old system, even led to gun battles on the streets of Moscow.
Eccentric parties came and went. One flyer this writer remembers seeing during that wild decade extolled the benefits of voting for the "Beer lovers' party" (they didn't win.)
Russia's "Managed Democracy"
When Putin came to power in 2000, that all started to change. His vision for Russia was a strong state running a strong country. Politics—and the press—had to function within what came to be called "managed democracy."
That more or less worked as long as Putin was popular. The deal was pretty simple. You give up some of the freedoms that came with the end of communism, but at the same time living standards improve. Soaring oil prices of the early 2000s helped as the cash rolled into resource-rich Russia.
MOSCOW, RUSSIA - JULY 01: Russian President Vladimir Putin arrives to cast his vote during the main ... [+]
Putin Still Popular, But Less So
Putin is still popular. The respected Levada Center put his approval rating at 66% in August—something many leaders would be pretty happy with. In late 2014, though, that figure was 85%. Putin's standing in the eyes of the electorate may still be pretty good—but it has been a lot better.
What's happened? The 2014 figure can be explained in part by the huge surge in popularity which Putin enjoyed after Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine earlier that year. Since then, though, living standards have been falling.
Lower oil prices and the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic mean that a return to the good times looks some way off.
Even a "managed democracy" has to have elections. Putin may not personally be running this weekend, but the party—United Russia—which exists largely to support him, is fielding candidates.
Police Raids On Opposition Offices
In United Russia's case, the polling is less positive. A Levada poll published September 7—admittedly about voting intentions for parliamentary rather than local elections—put them on just 31% (the same as the "don't knows" and the "not going to votes" combined).
Putin needs them to make a good showing to shore up his own standing.
Earlier this year, a national vote approved constitutional change which could allow him to remain in power until 2036. Poor results for his political allies would raise questions about both his longer term political future, and his ability to influence the choice of his successor.
So the September 13 vote matters. The Kremlin—mindful of the unrest that has followed a disputed election in neighbouring Belarus—will want things to go smoothly. As Reuters reported September 9, there have already been police raids on the offices of some opposition activists.
Even as the Kremlin knows it must hold these regional elections to legitimize Russia's current political system, the polls also present an opportunity for protest.
