The newspaper headline was direct: “Workers See ‘Robot Revolution’ Depriving Them of Jobs.” The article outlined the proliferation of machines increasingly performing the tasks of humans, and it even spurred calls for a congressional investigation of automation, with an eye toward averting mass job loss. The decade was the 1950s.
Humans have always viewed new technology somewhat skeptically. In recent years, increased use of robotic process automation, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning has triggered many apocalyptic headlines claiming mass job losses are right around the corner. But while change is happening quickly, the full picture will not emerge overnight. Just as the steam engine, bulldozer and forklift allowed us to overcome human limitations in muscle power, AI and other digital technologies are allowing us to overcome human limitations in brainpower.
Given the vast potential of these technologies — and our relative inexperience with each — our capacity to predict the future is extremely limited. We might better compare where we are now with the early days after the discovery of fire. Humans simply couldn’t have predicted all the advances that would eventually follow — they were just rubbing sticks together, trying to generate heat and a spark.
What is clear from my company's new research, "Automating Work: The Human/AI Intersection," is that while expectations around job losses are often overstated, rising skill shortages are understated. Based on input from over 1,700 HR and business professionals, we found that advanced work automation technologies (AI, robotics, etc.) will far more often automate tasks — and augment current jobs — than eliminate them. But as a result, the top concern for organizations is and should be the increasing capability gap (knowledge, skills, etc.) of their workforce.
In short, the challenge facing organizations and workers is not mass unemployment, but mass redeployment.
Some organizations, such as IBM and Accenture, have already spent several years upskilling (learning new skills needed due to changes in the current role) and reskilling (learning new skills in order to shift into a new role) their workforces. More will follow and dedicate budget to this challenge — for example, Amazon (which is a customer of ours) has recently pledged to spend $700 million to train 100,000 employees in higher-skilled jobs by 2025. It’s quite possible that your future new software engineer will have started their career packing boxes in an Amazon fulfillment center.
While these efforts are inspirational, such examples are currently too rare. Just one in five organizations we surveyed are prepared to handle the looming capability gap, and even fewer have specific upskilling/reskilling programs in place. Why?
Some may not yet recognize the near-term impact of automation to the workforce. Many organizations may not have formally assessed their capability gaps and identified what skills will be needed in the future. In fact, many have only a vague sense of the growth areas that will be needed in their workforces. Others simply view training as an expense or necessary evil, rather than as an investment in the future.
How To Proceed
Upskilling and reskilling an organization’s workforce to fill the capability gap needs to occur as one step in a broader process — one that evolves strategic workforce planning into strategic work planning.
First, assume that all roles could be affected by automation, and take the time to deconstruct each job into its component tasks. Then assess which tasks are best performed by humans or automation.
In many cases, automation, robotics or AI technology will augment a solid portion of the work humans perform, perhaps requiring a 10–40% shift in tasks and a need to upskill. In other cases, where most or all of what the human worker will be doing will change, a broader reskilling approach will be needed.
It is important to involve your employees in this process. Empowering your workforce to figure out how to automate their own jobs is a great way to combat a looming issue in the age of robotics: workforce motivation. The introduction of automation and AI tools can lead to understandable concern among employees, and it’s critical for organizations to counteract that concern early.
In thinking about the possibilities, employees need to have a growth mindset instead of a fixed mindset. With appropriate upskilling and reskilling opportunities, and career growth as the light at the end of the tunnel (as opposed to the oncoming locomotive of job loss), workers can be optimistic, innovative and creative, rather than fearful and intentionally foot-dragging when it comes to implementing these new technologies.
While technical skills are important, soft skills and people skills such as problem-solving, strategic thinking, customer service and teamwork are actually the capabilities most commonly included in upskilling/reskilling programs. These are the traits that robots, robotic process automation and AI typically can’t provide (and might not ever to the degree that humans can).
IBM’s CHRO and our friend Diane Gherson has said that AI will change 100% of jobs. If that prediction is even close to correct, the headline of the future will celebrate the organizations that embraced mass redeployment of their workforces.
