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Disruption is a very interesting phenomenon, among other things because virtually no established industry is ever prepared for it. By definition, disruption is rarely invited: it is almost always forced on us, particularly in a mature industry, when some external circumstance, a radical innovation, an evolution or a change of some kind forces businesses to react, usually after trying to resist for as long as possible; and there are always winners and losers.
A series of recent announcements suggest that the automotive industry, aware that the imminent disruption of its approximately 160-year history will impact on its main technology, on the way we drive and even on car ownership, is making some efforts to prepare for it. Germany’s BMW and Daimler have teamed up to develop autonomous vehicles, while also announcing new lines of electric models. Volkswagen has announced a similar alliance with Ford, confirming its intention to launch a transport service with fully electric vehicles this year and breaking a 20-year hill climb record with its I.D. R electric racing car, while Ford is pressing ahead with Argo, its autonomous vehicles division. GM has teamed up with Honda to develop autonomous vehicles, while Jaguar is launching another electric model. Toyota has joined Subaru to produce pure electric vehicles, while investing $500 million in Uber’s autonomous driving technology and has unveiled improved solar technology for its vehicles. Audi has also revealed plans for autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Nissan has also developed electric technology, and to top it all, China, with huge domestic demand, says it has an unassailable lead.
Clearly, something is happening in the automotive industry: you may already own, or soon own, what will be your last car — and let’s hope so if we’re to prevent an environmental catastrophe. A part of the industry with a horrible reputation, car dealers, have yet to get on the program and will still try to discourage people from buying electric vehicles that are easier and cheaper to run so as to keep making money from us, but the evidence is clear: the change to fleets of self-driving electric vehicles we can use as needed is going to be central to an economic model characterized by increasing restrictions in our cities on car ownership to reduce traffic and pollution. The electric autonomous vehicle is our most important opportunity to redesign a part of a culture long ago proven to be completely unsustainable.
Peak car has already arrived in many countries: what are the implications for an automotive industry trying to withstand disruption through government lobbying? The sector is readying for many of the changes that lie ahead, but is still trying to slow them down as much as they can, and keep selling us their poisonous vehicles. Again: no industry accepts disruption until it has no alternative. If we allow the automobile industry to set the agenda for its own disruption, the changes we so desperately need will come too late. Delaying bans on internal combustion vehicles for twenty or thirty years is the same as doing nothing: within two or three decades, there will be nothing left to save.
It is time to recognize that legislation has to do the job the market is clearly not prepared to do. The question is whether our governments are really up to the job…
