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EU’s Limited Reaction To Syria Offensive Won’t Stop Turkey

This article is more than 4 years old.

The European Union may have high ambitions to become a key player on the world’s stage—but its limited reaction to Turkey’s offensive in Northern Syria to draw out Kurdish forces shows the EU’s lacking influence.

At the conclusion of an EU summit this week, the EU 28 urged Turkey to withdraw from the region and said in a joint statement the military operation “causes unacceptable human suffering, undermined the fight against Daesh (the so-called Islamic State group) and threatens heavily European security.”

EU member states also agreed earlier in the week to limit arms exports but stopped short of issuing an EU wide embargo.

Italy, France, Germany, the U.K and Spain were among member states to announce plans to suspend sales and exports of arms to Turkey. The bloc also agreed to start a list of potential sanctions over the country’s oil and gas drilling near Cyprus.

But experts say their efforts will not deter Turkey, a NATO member that has been keen to become self-reliant in defense capabilities and can carry out the operation without European support.

“Arms embargo matters somewhat, but not much,” said Asli Aydıntaşbaş from The European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

“What solely matters to Erdogan is his relationship with Donald Trump — not Congress, not Europe, not the Pentagon but Trump.

“On that, he still seems fairly confident,” she added.

The relationship with the U.S. has worked in President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s favor after Turkey agreed to a U.S. plea to a five-day pause in fighting on October 17 if Kurdish forces withdraw from the region.

But that could also be because of Trump coming out with a stronger threat than the EU in authorizing sanctions and vowing to “obliterate” Turkey’s economy.

Meanwhile, European Union Council President Donald Tusk has said the halt in fighting is “not a ceasefire… it’s a demand of capitulation of the Kurds.”

East and West Fail To Meet In Middle

Turkey has been a long-time candidate to join the EU but that pipe dream looks even further removed.

The Turkish government has said it would “seriously review” its cooperation with the EU in light of the arms embargo.

Trade, security and a migration pact with the EU has been mutually beneficial and Turkey’s geographical position between the East and West, as well as its energy resources in the Caspian, have also made Turkey an important EU ally.

But since the offensive, the relationship has spiralled and decision-makers are aware that both sides need the other.

Turkey’s launched an incursion into northern Syria on October 09 to force out the Kurdish YPG, the main militia in Washington’s ally the Syrian Democratic Forces so that it can create a “safe zone” to send some two million Syrian refugees back. Turkey deems the YPG a terrorist group.

The incursion followed the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw troops from the region, which some say gave a green light for the Turkish assault.

Migration Threats

Migration is a significant card in Turkey’s hand and could threaten a 2016 agreement with the bloc, which sees Turkey sheltering the majority of refugee flows to Europe in exchange for financial aid.

On October 10, Erdogan said he would “open the gates” and send 3.6 million refugees currently in Turkey to Europe.

The threat weighed heavy on Hungary, who officials said was cautious in issuing a joint EU communiqué last week to condemn Turkey for its actions over fears it would scupper the migration deal.

Greece, which is struggling with a high rate of asylum seekers, has also voiced its concern about a new wave of migration since the offensive.

“Turkey uses the EU migration pacts as leverage because it is unhappy with the deal not being fully implemented because assistance funding is slow to arrive as it has to go via NGOs,” said Amanda Paul, an analyst at the European Policy Centre think tank.

Europe's Security Worries

Greater fears for Europe are reports that Islamic State members and affiliates had escaped from the prisons and camps in the Kurdish held areas.

Turkey and the Kurdish-led administration have blamed the escape of hundreds of IS prisoners and affiliates on each other.

France, which was struck by a string of horrific ISIS-claimed attacks in Paris in 2015 among others, has stressed its concern.

“France is correctly worried if hardened ISIS fighters escaped as they can go back to France and return to their communities or become a serious security concern,” Paul said.

But European governments had ample opportunity to repatriate and try its foreign fighters in Syria at home.

In February, Trump asked the EU to take back 800 Islamic State fighters with European nationalities, but it is unclear how many France repatriated and other nations preferred they were tried in Iraq.

“It’s come back to haunt them”, Paul said, adding, “now is the time to take back nationals.”

Russia Fills The Void

In time, Turkey and Europe will need to settle into a transactional and strategic relationship and build a new framework.

And while the EU’s relationship with Turkey spirals, Russia may be the only power that can act as a mediator.

Russia has long supported Assad’s government in Syria’s war, whose army is now backing the Kurdish YPG forces. After the five-day truce ends, Erdogan and President Vladimir Putin will meet in Sochi for talks.

“The EU will continue to condemn Turkey but it won’t work… The U.S. has gone too far. They are now saying something else but (the offensive) started because of Trump.

“So Russia could be the only actor who could change events and mediate between Turkey, Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad and the Kurds,” Paul said.