It's Time to Prepare for the Great Reshuffle 2.0

It’s hard to believe the pandemic arrived four years ago — and how much change we’ve experienced in the labor market since then. We’ve moved from the sudden jolt of remote work to the Great [Talent] Reshuffle to the most recent state of hiring freezes and rightsizing workforces amid a generally tight global labor market. 

Over the last year, employees have largely sheltered in place, reluctant to make a move due to the softened economy, and the vast majority of companies are seeing very low employee turnover as a result. While it’s easy to mistake low attrition for contentment, in reality many employees feel stuck and wish they could do something new, but haven’t made the leap. Yet.

If history repeats itself, this period of low attrition will be followed by a period of high attrition, and we’re starting to see some early signs of this very phenomenon. Nearly 85% of people in the U.S. are considering changing jobs in 2024, as hiring stabilizes across many industries. Historical trends show that attrition rises as confidence in the economy improves — it’s just a matter of when, not if, it will happen. 

And when it does, you’ll need to shift gears fast.

Leaders need to prepare for inevitable attrition spikes

Many companies, particularly in technology, are at risk of being caught flat-footed when attrition spikes. A slowdown in hiring led many to scale back their recruiting teams to save on costs — the same idea as when auto companies reduce purchasing of components like semiconductors when demand for new cars flattens. It seems logical: No cars sold, no need for the chips that power them. 

But when demand bounces back unexpectedly, unprepared auto manufacturers struggle to reignite the supply chain. Just as carmakers must anticipate supply chain challenges, today’s leaders must prepare for and mitigate inevitable attrition spikes. Even if you’re not expecting to grow your employee base, backfilling departures often constitutes the bulk of corporate hiring.

These questions will help leaders get ready for the upcoming surge:

1. Are you helping employees see what’s next?

Employees long for change (and a feeling of career progress) after doing the same job for a while – it’s only natural. They crave a feeling of professional growth, especially when uncertainty is high. Whether they’re learning a new skill, working on a new project, or moving into a new role, they are looking to keep things interesting. 

Our research shows that employers can reduce attrition by putting employees, particularly top performers, in new roles every 24 to 36 months (depending on their role and level). Employee growth, through learning and career development, drives engagement and increases retention.

2. How is your recruiting team feeling?

Now is an excellent time to check in with your recruiters, who will be vital to your success as attrition increases. Many teams have experienced layoffs, not to mention working with candidates through more change in the labor market than we’ve seen in decades. Recruiters represent your company to candidates, and it’s critical that they feel passionate about working with you. When hiring picks up steam again, they’re the ones battling for your talent.

Simply put, show your recruiters some love and appreciation. Erin Scruggs, our VP of global talent acquisition, reminded me recently: “Recruiters often gravitate to the profession because of the meaning they find in their roles. They're changing the trajectory of people’s lives while setting their companies up to succeed by bringing in the right talent.” 

As leaders, it's more important than ever that we reinforce the impact and value talent leaders bring — whether it's through company-wide meetings, smaller group gatherings, or one-on-one conversations.

3. Do your recruiters have what they need to adapt quickly?

Many recruiting teams are thinly staffed right now. How effectively will they handle a sudden spike in job applications and recommendations?

Enable your teams to work smarter, not harder. Investing in advanced technology and tools like generative AI (GAI) that can help recruiters scale quickly to meet demand is critical. GAI is already helping recruiters get work done more efficiently: 57% say it makes writing job descriptions faster and easier, and 42% say it removes daily mundane tasks. 

You can think of AI like a massive sand shovel that helps them dig out from the minutiae to focus on the big rocks that are going to help them meet their goals, like connecting with potential candidates to fill a high-priority open role on the team.

We’re already seeing great early results from our new AI-powered features in Recruiter 2024, with 74% of our users saying it saves them time, and on average customers saw up to a 23% increase in InMail accept rates using our new AI-assisted messages. The interview question of 2024 is going to be, "How are you using AI at home or at work?" Make sure your recruiting teams will also be able to answer that question substantively.

4. Take measures now to be prepared

Higher attrition rates are coming, particularly as the market warms, so it’s important for each of us to be prepared. It’s during these moments of reacceleration that those who are prepared win market share. 

You don’t want to find yourself in the position of asking: “Why is it taking so long for us to hire people?” Or, “Why are so many good people leaving?” By taking some simple steps now, you can put yourself in a stronger position to retain and attract the right people for the inevitable next reshuffling of talent.

This post was originally published on LinkedIn.