MOSCOW, RUSSIA - 2021/01/23: A protester argues with the National Guard during a demonstration held ... [+]
The current wave of protest in Russia is unlikely to bring any major change in the short term—but it is raising issues that the Kremlin leadership will have to address.
Even in the economic boom times of the first decade of this century, when Russia raked in vast revenues from soaring oil prices, and ordinary people's incomes grew too, there were some who were not happy.
Garry Kasparov, the former world chess champion, organized rallies protesting against Vladimir Putin's presidency. This was not a mass movement. The protests drew crowds of perhaps 2,000 people—hardly significant in a city that was home to many millions.
I was a correspondent in Moscow at the time. A member of the presidential administration once asked me why western journalists bothered to cover demonstrations attracting such small numbers. The reason I gave was simple. It was not the number of protesters that was significant. It was the fact that they were greatly outnumbered by the riot police sent to keep an eye on them, and to make arrests.
Kremlin's Tactics For Stifling Dissent
Those tactics have largely served the Kremlin well as they sought to stifle protest during Putin's two decades at the summit of Russian power. The real reasons that the authorities were able to stifle protest then, though, had to do more with money and history than with batons and police cells.
During recent demonstrations, sparked by the detention of Putin's leading political opponent, Alexei Navalny, the Russian leadership has relied on those latter tactics.
Navalny was arrested January 17 on his return to Russia from Germany, where he had been recovering after being poisoned with a nerve agent—an attack he has blamed on Russia's security services. The Kremlin has denied this.
As Reuters reported, over 4,000 people were arrested the weekend of January 23 and 24 for joining rallies held across Russia calling for Navalny's release.
The threat of jail time—combined with the loss of employment or education that might follow—will deter some would-be demonstrators. Add to that the prospect of protesting during Russia's famously frozen winters, and this wave of street protest is unlikely to bring the changes demanded by those taking part.
Opposition leader Alexei Navalny appears on a screen set up at a hall of the Moscow Regional Court ... [+]
"You have the power now, but that's not eternal," were some of Navalny's defiant words as he joined the court hearing to decide on his release (to no one's real surprise, he remained in jail) via video link.
The Real Source Of Putin's Power
The nature of that power lies not just in the loyalty of the security forces. For his first two terms as president, from 2000-2008, Putin's real strength arguably lay elsewhere. He presided over economic growth that kept the population happy, and him popular.
He had an electorate that craved stability. He understood that, and offered it. A quick look back into Russia's very recent history—and the chaotic hardship that followed the collapse of communism—might dissuade the majority from seeking yet more change.
Falling Living Standards, And Warnings From Russia's History
Those strengths are now on the wane. It is now three decades since the fall of the Soviet Union—for the younger protesters, it's an event they have heard parents and grandparents speak of, not a lived reality. Living standards have not risen for years, and are being hit hard by lower oil prices than in the boom years and the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic.
Navalny has built his reputation by campaigning against alleged corruption among Russia's political elite—a message that doubtless carries more weight as ordinary people feel poorer.
I have argued before that Putin needs new ideas if he is to continue to make the most of his considerable political power. The Russian leader knows his country's history well, and so will be very aware that in 1917 and 1991—the revolutionary years of the last century—there were huge problems with the country's economy.
While Russia is nowhere near that kind of crisis now, its leaders will need to find ways to address the causes of discontent, as well as simply seeking to stop its being expressed.
