Police officers arrest a resident for alleged assault in Tijuana, Mexico, on Thursday, Feb. 10, ... [+]
Mexico’s President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is struggling to respond to historically high levels of violent crime. Over 33,000 people were killed in Mexico in 2021.
As a candidate, Lopez Obrador promised to invest in social programs and send the military back into the barracks. As president, however, he has embraced Mexico’s military to a higher degree than any of his recent predecessors. Unfortunately, Lopez Obrador has not invested energy and resources in reforming and improving Mexico’s police forces.
Current trends of violent crime in Mexico are alarming. Over 100,000 people have been killed in Mexico during the first three years of the Lopez Obrador administration. If current trends continue, Lopez Obrador’s administration will be remembered as the most violent six years in modern Mexican history.
But, rather than adjust his strategy Lopez Obrador has chosen to attack his critics and lobby congress to change Mexico’s constitution to give Mexico’s military a more permanent role in policing Mexico’s streets.
In one recent press conference, he downplayed the idea that current trends in violence represent a crisis and refused to amend his strategy.
“We’re not going to change the strategy because it’s giving us results,” he said.
During another speech, he attacked critics who question the role he is giving the military and accused skeptics of militarization of being corrupt, out of touch fascists.
“It’s just the retrograde…corrupt…angry…admirers of fascists,” who oppose putting the military in charge of police work, he said.
In a recent interview, Vanda Felbab-Brown, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington D.C., explained “The Mexican government needs to devise a comprehensive law enforcement strategy. There is no law enforcement strategy other than sending forces to stand in the streets and more or less do nothing.”
For years security analysts have been advising Mexico that soldiers are not a substitute for police.
Asked to pick one word to describe Lopez Obrador’s security strategy, Felbab-Brown said, “I would probably choose ‘militarization’ but that’s not completely accurate. There is an utter lack of actual plans [and] strategy so maybe the other word I would choose would be is ‘abstaining,’ abstaining from law enforcement is even more defining than militarization.”
Felbab-Brown also said that the problem of cargo truck hijacking is a symptom of the broader flaws in Lopez Obrador’s security strategy. Mexico logged 3,717 violent cargo truck hijackings during the first six months of 2022, up 4.9% from the 3,543 reported during the first half of 2021.
“This is poignantly emblematic of what happens when the government gives up on any kind of meaningful strategy to counter organized crime, it gives them a license to do what they want. Sadly, that’s the case in Mexico today,” she said.
Executives at foreign companies doing due diligence on potential investments in Mexico need to understand the risks arising from security issues and organized crime activity. Mexico attracted $11.9 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) during the first quarter of 2021, the highest level recorded since Mexico began tracking FDI in 1999. Security problems, however, are likely to be preventing Mexico from capitalizing on what could be a major boom in foreign investment.
“Competition with China is driving nearshoring. Mexico should benefit dramatically and yet the security situation critically undermines the economic benefits Mexico could reap. Many large businesses will make the calculation that putting new investment in Mexico might have to be put on hold until the security situation improves,” Felbab-Brown said.
In 2006 former President Felipe Calderon launched a major offensive against Mexico’s drug cartels. There was a sense around the world that Mexico was at war and Mexico became tainted with a reputation for being violent and unsafe.
Now, President Lopez Obrador insists that the security situation is improving. But the numbers belie Lopez Obrador’s optimism.
Just over 40,000 people were killed in Mexico during the first three years of Calderon’s government. Over 100,000 people were killed during the first three years of Lopez Obrador’s government. By this measure, Mexico is more than twice as violent now as it was when Calderon started his war with the cartels.
“This is happening under the nose of the military and they don’t intervene. The National Guard have simply become the most expensive mannequins in Mexico,” Felbab-Brown explained.
During the first three years of Mexican President Lopez Obrador's "sexenio" Mexico has recorded ... [+]
The current wave of violence does not seem, however, to have significantly affected Mexico’s soft-power brand or image. Mexico attracted a record 31.9 million foreign visitors in 2021. Mexico City has been embraced by globally mobile “home office” nomads from the U.S. and around the world.
Lopez Obrador seems unlikely to significantly revise his security policies. Instead he can simply claim that the situation is improving and that his policies are working.
Felbab-Brown has simple advice for Lopez Obrador.
“The state needs a law enforcement strategy. Right now, there is simply no law enforcement strategy. Go back to policing!” she said.
Check out the full conversation with Vanda Felbab-Brown here.
