Defying even the wildest predictions, 2022 has been a year of delirious political drama in the United Kingdom. The frenzied pace of events has eased in recent months, however, with many forecasting a far more sedate 2023. What are the chances of that?
Let’s start with what’s likely not to happen: a general election. Opposition parties are crying out for a national ballot, but Rishi Sunak and a sizeable segment of his Conservative MPs would have to agree before a vote is held. Given the Tories’ derisory position in the polls, that’s something we can more or less rule out.
Britain's Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak speaks during the Conservative Party Spring ... [+]
So, with a solid 24 months before an election must be held, the Sunak government still has time to steady the ship after Liz Truss’s calamitous interregnum, before getting on the front foot with an electorally attractive policy agenda.
That, of course, is easier said than done. Among a litany of problems facing the prime minister, Sunak must bring a disunited parliamentary party back together — a daunting task with Tory benches brimming with disaffected Truss and Boris Johnson loyalists. Avoiding rebellion will almost certainly mean major concessions, as the government has learned with recent U-turns on wind farms and house building.
The bigger challenge, though, is the economy. The UK is already in a recession — how deep the downturn goes will decide how good, bad, or disastrous 2023 is for Sunak. On this front, the signs aren’t great. Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine shows little sign of slowing, which means energy prices (and living costs generally) aren’t likely to fall any time soon. Increased unemployment and above-target inflation are toxic at the ballot box, something the government will discover when local elections roll around in May.
Sunak also carries the burden of industrial strife into the new year, with more public sector strikes planned for January. The prime minister seems determined to tough the unions out, hopeful that public opinion will turn as vital services take a hit. There’s also optimism in Downing Street that inflation will start to retreat, lessening the demand for pay rises. Both scenarios are possible, but far from guaranteed.
Here’s something that is set in stone: ‘Partygate’ will be back in 2023. Chaired by Labour grandee Harriet Harman, a cross-party committee tasked with deciding whether Johnson misled parliament is expected to publish its findings at some point in the new year. While the inquiry is focused on Sunak’s former boss, it will force the sorry saga back into the headlines — considering the prime minister was found to have breached lockdown laws himself, that’s something the government won’t relish.
LIVERPOOL, ENGLAND - JULY 25: Sir Keir Starmer, leader of the Labour Party delvers a keynote speech ... [+]
One person who will welcome a renewed focus on Conservative rule-breaking is Keir Starmer. The last twelve months have seen a succession of self-inflicted wounds by the Tories, but to put the Labour Party firmly on the precipice of power, Starmer will need to be decisive in 2023.
The Labour leader’s primary challenge is recognition, making clear to voters what it is he stands for, rather than simply being the go-to alternative for those fed up with wayward Tory rule. That work has already started, casting Labour as the party of economic reform and law and order in recent weeks.
With a 20+ point polling advantage, it’s hard to see the new year being anything but bountiful for the Opposition, and brutal for the government. But if 2022 has taught us anything, there’s no saying what will happen next!
